Basic Card Odds and Probabilities

Whether you’re looking to play around your friend’s kitchen table or at a casino online, having a good grasp of the numbers you need is essential if you’re looking to tip the odds in your favour.

As every deck contains the same number of cards, the maths applies across the board but you need to remember that as the game goes on and cards get dealt the probability changes too.

When playing Blackjack in the casino, whether online or offline, people who kept mental track of cards until they knew what was left were called ‘Card Counters’ and while it’s not illegal, casino owners aren’t exactly fans.

With a few exceptions (like Baccarat) getting a 10 or face card is a nice boost to your play, and if you’re holding out for one then it might be worth knowing that there’s a 30.7% chance of getting one (assuming all the face cards are worth ten). But don’t get too cocky, this is only true assuming the other players haven’t been dealt the tens.

For example, if you’re playing Blackjack and the players around you both get dealt two 10 value cards, then there’s four no longer in the deck and this will adjust the odds of you being dealt one so it’s less likely.

Alternatively, if they also haven’t been dealt any ten value cards, then the odds will increase that one of you will land one. It may sound obvious, but this is well worth bearing in mind if you’re weighing up chance.

For a more detailed breakdown, Betfair have produced the below graphic: